Predictions
World Cup 2026 Odds: Live Tracker + Value Bets Analysis
We don't tip bets. We show you the single most useful thing in betting markets: where the price disagrees with a calibrated model. Everything below is analysis, not advice.
What “value” actually means
A bookmaker’s odds imply a probability. Decimal odds of 5.00 imply a 20% chance (1 ÷ 5.00), before the margin the book builds in. Our model also produces a probability. Value exists only when the model’s probability is meaningfully higher than the price implies — not when a team “feels” due, not when they’re popular, and not when they won their last friendly 4–0.
Everything below compares the two numbers. The “Model” column is our simulation; the “Market” column is the de-margined implied probability. Where the model reads higher, the card flags it.
The biggest disagreements this week
Why we publish the gap, not a tip
Two reasons. First, a calibrated model is right about frequencies, not individual outcomes — so a single result tells you nothing about whether the read was good. Second, responsible coverage means showing our work and letting you decide. If you do choose to bet, the only edge that survives contact with reality is consistent, disciplined exposure to genuine mispricings — and even then the house margin is real.
How the tracker updates
- Odds are sampled across major books and de-margined to a fair implied probability so we’re comparing like with like.
- Model numbers come from the same 50,000-path simulation behind the winner tracker.
- We refresh weekly pre-tournament, then after each match day.
For the full picture of which teams the model backs outright, see the favourites tiers. For the methodology, read how our model works.
This page is analysis of public betting markets for informational purposes. It is not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun, stop.