Predictions
USA vs Türkiye: Group D Is Already Won — What the USMNT Plays For Tonight
The USMNT have already won Group D — their first World Cup group title since 2010. They sign off against winless Türkiye on Thursday night while Paraguay and Australia fight for second. Here is what is at stake and who the USA could face on July 1.
For the United States, the hard part is done. Two games into the 2026 World Cup, the USMNT have already won Group D — their first World Cup group-stage title since 2010 — and they close the group out against Türkiye on Thursday, June 25 with nothing left to prove on the qualification front. It is, on paper, a dead rubber. But there is still plenty riding on the night, from a perfect group-stage record to the first hint of who waits in the Round of 32.
Here is the picture going into matchday three — confirmed facts only, with no predicted scores.
How the USA got here
The Americans opened in style at SoFi Stadium, brushing aside Paraguay 4-1 on June 12, then backed it up with a controlled 2-0 win over Australia at Lumen Field in Seattle on June 19. Two games, two wins, six goals scored and just one conceded — a +5 goal difference that no one else in the group can touch.
That second win mathematically sealed top spot with a round to spare, the kind of cushion the USA has rarely enjoyed at a World Cup. The last time they won their group was South Africa 2010.
Where Group D stands
| Pos | Team | Pld | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 2 | -3 | 0 |
The USA are through and top. Türkiye, still without a point after losing to both Australia and Paraguay, are already eliminated. That leaves the real drama in the parallel fixture: Australia and Paraguay are level on three points, separated only by goal difference, and meet head-to-head for the second qualifying place.
The June 25 schedule (ET)
| Time | Match | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 10:00 PM | Türkiye vs United States | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| 10:00 PM | Paraguay vs Australia | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
As with every final group fixture, the two Group D games kick off simultaneously so neither Australia nor Paraguay can play knowing the other result.
So what does the USA actually play for?
Qualification is locked, but the night is not meaningless:
- A perfect group stage. A win would give the USA nine points from nine — a statement of form heading into the knockouts and a confidence boost for a host nation carrying enormous expectation.
- Momentum and rhythm. Manager and players will want to sharpen the team without picking up needless injuries or suspensions before the Round of 32.
- Rotation. With top spot secure, the staff can give minutes to squad players and rest key starters — a luxury earned by getting the job done early.
- A send-off for the host crowd. A packed SoFi Stadium gets one more group night before the tournament’s pressure ratchets up.
For Türkiye, it is a chance to leave the tournament with pride and avoid going home pointless.
Who could the USA face in the Round of 32?
As Group D winners, the USA are slotted into a Round of 32 tie on July 1 in Santa Clara. Their opponent will be a third-placed team, drawn from one of Groups B, E, F, I or J, depending on how the best-third-placed maths shake out once every group has finished. That keeps names such as Switzerland’s or Canada’s group, Germany’s group and several others in the mix until the final whistles around the tournament.
In other words, the USA will not know exactly who they are playing until the group stage is complete — but they will do so as a group winner, with a full week to prepare, and unbeaten.
The bottom line
Thursday is a victory lap with a competitive edge. The United States have banked top spot in Group D and now get to fine-tune against a Türkiye side with nothing left to play for, while Australia and Paraguay scrap for the right to join them in the knockouts. Win, lose or draw, the Americans march on — the only question left is who comes next.
All results and standings above are confirmed and cross-checked against official FIFA data and major outlets (FIFA.com, Wikipedia, Fox Sports, Yahoo Sports, ESPN). This article contains no estimated or projected scores; the June 25 fixtures had not kicked off at the time of writing.