Predictions
Panama vs Croatia: Group L Preview, Kickoff Time & Model Pick
Panama and Croatia both lost their Group L openers, turning their Toronto meeting into a near must-win. Here's the kickoff time, the group picture, and our model's pre-match forecast — labelled as a forecast, not a result.
While England and Ghana fight over the top of Group L, Panama and Croatia meet at BMO Field in Toronto with something more urgent on the line: keeping their World Cup alive. Both lost their openers, so the loser here is left with almost no margin going into the final matchday.
When and where
- Kickoff: Tuesday, June 23, 2026 — 19:00 local (ET) in Toronto
- Venue: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
- Group: L (England, Ghana, Croatia, Panama)
In Toronto for the game? Our host-city guides cover where to watch and where to stay around the Toronto venue.
The group picture
England and Ghana both won their openers and sit on three points, while Panama and Croatia are level on zero. That makes this a near straight knockout: the winner climbs back into contention for a top-two place or one of the eight best third-placed spots, while a draw leaves both needing a major final-day result. For Croatia — a side with deep tournament pedigree — an opening defeat has turned a winnable group into a tightrope; for Panama, every point off a more decorated opponent is the kind of swing result their qualifying math depends on.
The model’s read
Below is our pre-match model output. Treat it as a forecast: it’s built from pre-tournament team strength and recent form, and it is not a result. We publish confirmed scorelines and stats only once a match is official.
Three things to watch
- Croatia’s midfield control. Their identity is built on keeping the ball and dictating tempo — if they impose that rhythm, the game should tilt their way; if Panama disrupt it, an upset opens up.
- Panama’s pressing triggers. Their best chance is making the game chaotic and forcing turnovers high up the pitch before Croatia settle — the phase of the game where the result can swing.
- Nerves and game state. With both sides on zero points, the first goal carries outsized weight. How each team manages the scoreline, especially after the hour mark, may decide it.
Bottom line
Our model leans Croatia, reflecting their experience and squad quality, but a single-defeat must-win between two sides under pressure rarely runs to form — Panama have the motivation and the setting to make it awkward. We’ll update this page with the verified result and post-match numbers once the final whistle confirms them; until then, everything above is a forecast.
For exactly how the eight best third-placed teams qualify, see our best third-placed teams explainer, and for the group’s other matchday-two game, our England vs Ghana preview.
Kickoff time, venue and group composition are per the official 2026 fixture list. xG and win-probability figures are model estimates, clearly labelled as such; this preview contains no match result.