Predictions
Germany vs Paraguay: Round of 32 Preview, Kickoff Time & Team News
Group E winners Germany meet Group D's best-third-placed qualifier Paraguay at Gillette Stadium in the afternoon Round-of-32 slot on June 29. Here are the kickoff time, the routes both took to the last 32, the team news and our model's pre-match forecast — labelled as a forecast, not a result.
Germany pick up the Round of 32 in the afternoon. Four-time world champions Germany open the second day of the knockouts against Paraguay at Gillette Stadium near Boston — a meeting of the Group E winners and one of the tournament’s eight best third-placed teams, with a Round of 16 place on the line. It is the middle act of a three-tie Monday that closes with Netherlands–Morocco in Monterrey.
When and where
- Kickoff: Monday, June 29, 2026 — 4:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston), USA
- Stage: Round of 32 — winner advances to the Round of 16
How they got here
The two teams arrive from opposite ends of the qualification table.
Germany topped Group E on six points, but not without a scare: after taking care of business in their first two games, Die Mannschaft were beaten 2-1 by Ecuador in their final group match, a result that cost them nothing in terms of top spot but served as a reminder that the four-time champions remain a work in progress. (For the full story of that night, see our Ecuador 2-1 Germany recap.)
Paraguay took the hard road. Beaten in their opener by hosts the United States, La Albirroja steadied themselves with a narrow win and a goalless draw to finish third in Group D on four points, then waited for the math to break their way. It did: Paraguay qualified as one of the eight best third-placed teams, reaching the World Cup knockout stage for the first time since 2010.
Team news
Germany are without centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck, ruled out for the rest of the tournament with an ankle injury — a blow to a back line that has already looked vulnerable, as our report on his exit explained. Up front, the German attack still has the firepower that produced a comfortable group, and the bench depth to change a game.
Paraguay must reshuffle their midfield: Diego Gómez is suspended after picking up his second booking of the group stage, while captain and attacking outlet Miguel Almirón is available again after serving a one-match ban. Coach Gustavo Alfaro’s side will lean on the defensive organisation and counter-attacking that got them out of the group.
The model’s read
Below is our pre-match model output. Treat it as a forecast: it is built from pre-tournament team strength and group-stage form, and it is not a result. We publish confirmed scorelines and stats only once a match is official.
Our model makes Germany clear favourites — the talent gap and the run of play through the group point that way. But Paraguay’s whole tournament has been built on frustrating better sides, and a low-scoring, cagey knockout is exactly the script that keeps the underdog alive.
Three things to watch
- Germany’s back line without Schlotterbeck. Ecuador exposed gaps in transition; Paraguay will try to do the same on the break.
- Whether Paraguay can keep it tight. A 0-0 draw against Australia was enough to send them through — they know how to defend a result, and a knockout invites exactly that.
- The set-piece battle. With both sides carrying aerial threat, dead balls could decide a tie this finely balanced.
Bottom line
Germany have the squad, the form and the history — their only previous World Cup meeting with Paraguay ended in a 1-0 German win in the 2002 Round of 16. But knockout football has a way of compressing those gaps, and Paraguay have spent this tournament proving they are hard to put away. Our model leans heavily Germany; the value is in how, not whether, they break a stubborn opponent down. We’ll update this page with the verified result and post-match numbers once the final whistle confirms them; until then, everything above is a forecast.
For the rest of Monday’s slate and the full knockout map, see the Round of 32 bracket.
Kickoff time, venue and group-stage records are confirmed facts, cross-checked against official FIFA data and major outlets. xG and win-probability figures are model estimates, clearly labelled as such; this preview contains no match result. Sources: FIFA Match Centre, Goal.com, Yahoo Sports.